Ellis responds to DiPatri; facts trump emotion – again

‘Public Education Enemy Number One’ still can’t find the missing $100 million

“Truth, crushed to earth, shall rise again;
Th’ eternal years of God are hers;
But Error, wounded, writhes in pain,
And dies among his worshippers.”

The School Board has claimed consistently there has been a $100 million revenue cut over the last two years. My great sin was to ask for the state revenue numbers for the monies received by the BPS from the State over those two years. The property tax information was easily available from the Tax Collector as well as the School Board’s legal advertisement in July, and property tax revenue is up.

One will note in the exchanges, as well as the information sent by Ms. Preston, as well as the ‘memo’ from Dr. DiPatri (which I was deliberately not copied in its original two sendings so I would be unable to reply to all who received it) NEVER are the simple tax revenue numbers given from the State of Florida for FY 2006/07, FY 2007/08, and FY 2008/09. Never.

My belief now after the fire and brimstone answers from Amy Kneesy, Judy Preston, and Richard DiPatri is the $100 million in revenue already cut is a deliberate distortion. In Ms. Preston’s own memo she states the revenue was cut $445 per student, which is about $30 million. With this year’s property tax revenue increase of $9 million, that’s about a $21 million drop out of over $600 million received. The $600 million in State and Local revenue is about a $200 million increase over the last five years with a declining enrollment.

Dr. DiPatri claims I stated the reduction was $7 million (which would be 1%) when I had included the analysis of Ms. Preston’s numbers at a decline of $30 million (with an extra $9 million in property tax coming in). Dr. DiPatri was sure to laughingly criticize the straw man $7 million yet AGAIN fails to provide the real number of the State revenue reductions for the last three years. Note below the question is never answered in Dr. DiPatri’s comment below and then determine who is distorting comments and ignoring facts. $10 million is not $100 million by a long shot.

“Does he actually believe that we have only been reduced by $7 million during the past two years rather than almost $100 million? In Ms. Preston’s e-mail of 4/2/09, she provided Mr. Ellis with the revised third calculation as one of the sources which alone reduced Brevard’s 2008-2009 funding by $10.1 million. Yet, he persists in stating that you didn’t provide the information and that we were only cut a total of $7 million during the past two years. This is just another example of how Mr. Ellis distorts or ignores the facts presented to him.”

Total School Board revenue (including Federal) rose from $487 million in 2003 to $715 million in 2008. I am trying to get the State side of FY 2006/07 – FY 2008/09. Clearly whatever reductions have occurred in 2008/09 pale in comparison to the large gains made in the years prior.

The School Board and Dr. DiPatri do not wish to be questioned as the real culprit behind the current problems, debt service, will come to light. The hundreds of millions of dollars in COPs issued to build all the new facilities, rebuild many existing facilities, build new stadiums, gymnasiums, and performing arts centers, as well as additions to schools now alleged to be on ‘closure’ lists, is eating into the monies normally used for maintenance and facilities. The monies borrowed short term (RANs), which are similar to payday loans, now are also eating into the monies available for the school system.

The Brevard Public Schools went into debt based on a model of ever increasing revenues to cover the ever increasing debt service. When monies went flat their model fell apart. Many homeowners are unfortunately going through foreclosure based on the same model as they heavily borrowed off their houses.

If the school will not recognize how they got into the hole they’ll never recognize how to get out.
Again, one need not be an expert to read simple revenue numbers.

No one need believe anything I say, ask for yourself.

Ask for the total State revenue to the School Board for FY 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 as well as the total property tax revenue for the same years.

Then ask for the annual debt service for RANs (short term) and COPs (long term).

If you can get the data I could not (without being labeled Public Education Enemy Number One) please send it to me.

And as for that label, if someone had told you in 1912 not to get on the Titanic as its design was faulty, would they have been considered Public Steamship Enemy Number One?

The BCC meeting was a show, not a dialog. Dr. DiPatri guaranteed such by his taking the microphone, leaving a discussion, and initiating the broadside.

It was a rally and as such is fine, but labeling it a discussion or exchange of information is a misnomer,
BCC was packed because the upper School Board Administration ran out dozens of scare stories to parents to get them to the meeting, as well as having the students told to tell their parents to come to the meeting to ‘save’ education. I have coached for years, my players and parents were being told 9th grade and JV sports were dead if the Legislative cuts were made. Numerous local schools were to be closed, including my niece’s school at Croton.

The parents were told ‘another’ $100 million cut was coming, when in fact there had been nothing near a reduction of that magnitude so far and certainly NOTHING near that number was proposed by the Legislature.

A $100 million cut by the State would be equal a little over ONE THIRD of the State appropriation. Never was any cut of this magnitude proposed. This is what I mean by the School Board and Richard DiPatri running massive scare stories driven by exaggeration to push the parents to this meeting, then running it into anything but a rational dialogue and discussion.

Nothing was mentioned of the School Board’s demographic planning in the building and expansion of schools, to the point many on the alleged closure lists, such as Croton, had received millions in additions and upgrades. Titusville High School took in about $50 million, yet when the shuttle is history in a few years one the three high schools in North Brevard may very well be surplus. The new western Palm Bay High School was not needed, a push to the north of boundary lines, particularly to Satellite and Melbourne, could have relieved Bayside. Oddly enough it is ignored that numerous high school teachers are being shifted to the new school because there are not enough students to justify them in the surrounding high schools.

The hundreds of millions spent on the new schools and the renovations and additions elsewhere have created the debt service now hammering the School Board. I am not sure if Dr. Dipatri included everything in his missive, because back in 2005 I warned the School Board members NOT to start their planned $700 billion bonded expansion plan. I tried to show them house prices were grossly irrational and if their 10% annual growth were correct the MEDIAN house price in Brevard County would be over $350,000 in five years, a stratoshperic number where people with children would flee, and certainly not come in. From a median price of $250,000 in 2005 we are now at $115,000, not $350,000 – and falling.

At the peak of the Housing Bubble they were assuming the 10% annual growth rate in the tax base for five years would cover all the new debt service. Well, since 2005 the tax roll has gone backwards, and in the next two years will fall even further. The School Board’s 2 mill capital tax will drop in revenue by tens of millions of dollars, creating more havoc with their finances. The School Board did exactly what many homeowners did, borrowed off ‘equity’ and ‘future equity’ in the tax roll and set up a system where they HAD to have increasing revenue to constantly cover the rising debts. Their situation will get worse now as capital millage revenue shrinks but debt service continues to rise.

The School Board is not addressing their own culpability in their reckless financing of short and long term debt and the crippling effect of their own self inflicted fiscal policies. Now again I may be labeled Public Education Enemy Number One by the School Superintendant, but the real fact is while I have no true influence over School Board spending policies (as certainly evidenced by the massive COP borrowing) the current Superintendant has left a legacy of debt that future Boards and the next Superintendant will struggle with for a decade.

As for my alleged nastiness with Ms. Kneesy, I hope Dr. DiPatri sent everyone the entire e-mail exchange. To not so so is a disservice to the true debate. Ms. Kneesy initially e-mailed me with her less than courteous (in fact, extremely condescending and sarcastic) comments on the School Board revenue numbers. She made sure in her comments to copy Dr. DiPatri and the press. If you read the entire exchange you will see I continually ask for the state revenue numbers and the source of the $100 million cut alleged to already have happened and you will see she never responded with math, simply fire and brimstone. This was in the INITIAL e-mail to me, copied to the press, so clearly no private e-mail exchange was ever intended. Below I have copied Ms. Kneesy’s initial e-mail, my initial response, and a copy of Dr. DiPatri’s e-mail identifying my status in life as Public Education Enemy Number ONE!

Take the time to analyze the tax revenue streams and where the money has been spent and the debts accumulated. School spending has not been endangered by the incoming revenue but by the massive debts accumulated during a period of windfall revenue.